Gibanje cene baterij

[EVSVET]

SAE international je iz podatkov Lux Research-a sestavil graf gibanja cene baterij na kWh, ter predvidevanje kam se bo krivulja nadaljevala. Do leta 2015 naj bi po njihovem cena padla na $172/kWh. Trenutno je najnižja cena Panasonic-ovih baterij, okoli $400/kWh.

$200/kWh se smatra za mejo, ko se bo začela masovnejša prodaja električnih vozil.

Gibanje cene litij-ionskih baterij

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[CRF]

Zanimiv graf primerjave cene na kilometer dosega:

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[CRF]

Ugoden graf...

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Zanimivo, kako je zgornji graf popolnoma mimo udaril glede cen celic in celotne baterije. Analiza kaže, da je letošnja povprečna cena baterije v avtomobilu pri 103€ na kWh, cena celic pa le 82€ na kWh. To pomeni cca. 20% stroška odpade na celoten "battery pack". V avtobusih pa celo cena pod 82€/kWh na nivoju baterije. Verjetno z LFP tehnologijo, kjer na bi bil strošek le 65€ gledano le celice. Pa tudi nikelj, kobalt in mangan naj bi postajali vse bolj konkurenčni.

For the first time, battery pack prices of less than $100/kWh have been reported. These were for batteries in e-buses in China. While these were the lowest reported price, the volume-weighted average price for e-buses in China was slightly higher, $105/kWh.

To ceno naj bi v avtomobilih dosegli do 2023 brez subvencij!

BNEF’s 2020 Battery Price Survey, which considers passenger EVs, e-buses, commercial EVs and stationary storage, predicts that by 2023 average pack prices will be $101/kWh. It is at around this price point that automakers should be able to produce and sell mass market EVs at the same price (and with the same margin) as comparable internal combustion vehicles in some markets.

Jokcanje nekaterih, da izgubljajo denar na BEVs je torej ali znak nesposobnosti doseganje ekonomij obsega ali pa preprosto odpor do novih tehnologij

Leading battery manufacturers are now enjoying gross margins of up to 20% and their plants are operating at utilization rates over 85%. Maintaining high utilization rates is key to reducing cell and pack prices.

Pa še ena optimistična napoved analize: do leta 2030 bo strošek padel pod 50€.

[Vodokotlic]

Lepa. Zelo rad spremljam teme. Počasi se učim. Imam željo, da bi si naredil en svoj battery pack v bližnji prihodnosti.